P(B,E,~J,M) 
P(B | E,~J,M) = -----------
                 P(E,~J,M) 

P(E,~J,M) = P(B,E,~J,M) + P(~B,E,~J,M)

P(B,E,~J,M) = P(B,E,A,~J,M) + P(B,E,~A,~J,M) 

P(B,E,A,~J,M) = P(B)*P(E)*P(A|B,E)*P(~J|A)*P(M|A)
              = .001(.002)*(.95)*(.1)*(.7)
              = p1 approx. .00000014

P(B,E,~A,~J,M) =P(B)*P(E)*P(~A|B,E)*P(~J|~A)*P(M|~A)
              = .001(.002)*(.05)*(.95)*(.99)
              = p2 approx. .0000001


P(~B,E,~J,M) = P(~B,E,A,~J,M) + P(~B,E,~A,~J,M) 

P(~B,E,A,~J,M) = P(~B)*P(E)*P(A|~B,E)*P(~J|A)*P(M|A)
              = .999(.002)*(.29)*(.1)*(.7)
              = p3 approx. .00004

P(~B,E,~A,~J,M) 
            = P(~B)*P(E)*P(~A|~B,E)*P(~J|~A)*P(M|~A)
              = .999(.002)*(.71)*(.95)*(.99)
              = p4 approx. .0017

     p1 + p2
----------------- = P(B | E,~J,M) < .01
p1 + p2 + p3 + p4