Chuck-a-Luck
Description of Chuck-a-Luck:
This game is played with a wired birdcage that holds three dice.
The birdcage resembles an hourglass. The dealer turns over the hourglass
and three dice fall to the bottom cage. Whatever faces show on the three
dice after they land are the winners.
If you place your wager on any of the six numbered squares known as the
"Numbers Bet" you will win according to how many dice show the number you bet on.
Players bet on which face will appear. Say you bet that the dice will show a 2.
If one die does, you are paid off at even money; if two dice do, you are paid
off at two to one, and if all three dice show a 2, you are paid off at three to one.
The casino edge is 7.87 percent. (Author: Frank Scoblete)
A Game for Amateur Mathematicians:
A naive mathematician reasons as follows:
Each number comes up 1/6 of the time. If I bet on 5, it will come up on
the first die 1/6 of the time. But there are 3 dice, so a 5 should come
up 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/2 of the time. That would make the payoff even,
but if more than one 5 comes up, I get even more money. I can't
wait to start playing.
A Correct Analysis;
There are 6*6*6 = 216 ways for three dice to land.
Supposing you bet on 5. Of the 216,
- 125 ways involve no 5's,
- 75 ways involve exactly one 5,
- 15 ways involve exactly two 5's,
and
- 1 way involves exactly three 5's.
If you bet $1, then your
expected gain/loss is: ((-1)*125 + 1*75 + 2*15 + 3*1)/216 = -17/216
= -0.078703703 ..., that is, a loss of almost
8 cents. In other words, this means that the
house percentage on this game is 7.8703703...%
Not Such a Good Game:
The expected gain/loss for a $1 for normal roulette is:
1*(18/38) + (-1)*(20/38) = -0.05263 ..., or a house
percentage of 5.263...% Thus roulette is a much better
game to play. (Roulette in Monte Carlo has a house percentage
of 2.7027...%)
Online Chuck-a-Luck:
At least one online version of Chuck-a-Luck pays out as
above except that they pay $10 if you bet $1
and your number comes up on all three dice.
This gives an expected gain/loss of -10/216 = -.04629629...
for a house percentage of 4.629629...% -- even better
than normal roulette.